

A | 8月25日,我国首条海上油田化学驱聚合物全自动生产线在天津南港工业区开工建设。 WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。项目建成后,中国海上油田化学驱核心药剂——聚合物将实现自主规模化生产。 该项目是继2021年油田化工南港化工厂建成投产后,中国海油在油田化学品领域的又一重要布局。

B | 南港化工厂自投产以来,HAILOONG CHEMICAL(“海龙”化学)品牌油田化学药剂已达18种,配方自主化率达95%,年供应量突破4.36万吨,全面服务中国海上油田并远销海外。此次开工的油田化工南港建设项目,聚焦化学驱聚合物,是南港化工厂基础上的技术升级与产能拓展。 化学驱是海上油田提高采收率的关键技术,其中聚合物驱应用最为广泛。其原理是将高分子聚合物溶于水后注入地层,通过增大溶液黏度,使驱替液在地下更均匀地推进,从而有效驱出常规水驱后残留的原油。聚合物产品的品质与稳定供应,是化学驱规模化实施的重要保障。 油田化工南港建设项目占地121.54亩,年设计总产能5.8万吨,建设干粉聚合物、乳液聚合物等6条生产线,可生产速溶耐盐聚合物、耐温耐盐聚合物、聚丙烯酰胺乳液等全系列产品。

C | 项目建成后,将与南港化工厂形成中国海油规模最大的油田化学品生产基地,为增储上产提供资源保障。 项目计划2027年9月机械完工。

D | 生产线配置分布式控制系统,实现从原料投加到成品包装全流程自动化精准管控,工艺数据全程可追溯。此前,南港化工厂已获评天津市“先进级”智能工厂,正向“卓越级”智能工厂迈进,该项目的建设将推动中国海油油田化学品智能制造水平跃升。 记者 操秀英 来源 科技日报。
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