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90%股票上涨！伊朗股市狂飙！什么情况？_我的网站

一拳超人

A | 　　伊朗股市暗示着局势变化！　　北京时间8月26日下午，据Tindex（伊朗经济指数参考），德黑兰证券交易所综合指数上涨155000点，突破6385000点；一度有90%的股票上涨，超过80%的股票上涨2%—3%。

Illustration: Xia Qing/GT
The yen has weakened in recent days, edging closer to the psychologically important 160 level against the US dollar. The decline comes despite the widely watched move by Washington to join Tokyo in supporting the currency. Less than two weeks after the US-Japan intervention, the yen has given up roughly half of its gains, raising fresh questions over the effectiveness of coordinated efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.
Japan and the US had previously confirmed coordinated foreign exchange intervention to prop up the yen after the currency tumbled to a nearly 40-year low. At the time, some observers saw the move as potentially stabilizing the yen in the short term, although its longer-term impact remained uncertain.
However, the subsequent market reaction suggests that even the short-term effect may have been limited. After strengthening to about 155 per dollar in the days following the intervention from above 163, the yen had slipped back above 159 by Wednesday, less than two weeks later.
Questions have emerged over whether further support for the yen may soon be needed, and whether Washington would consider stepping in again. The previous intervention was seen by some observers as a test of market confidence: the unusual coordinated move had the potential to influence market expectations and discourage bets against the yen. But if market expectations remain largely unchanged, repeated interventions could deliver diminishing returns. The US may face a difficult trade-off. Another intervention could require greater resources and come at a higher cost, while refraining from further action could raise questions over the lasting impact of the previous effort.
Market commentary has added to the uncertainty. Axios published a report headlined "Yen's weakness shows market isn't done pushing," while some reports suggested that the impact of the US-Japan intervention was beginning to fade. Such narratives could weigh on sentiment toward the yen and reinforce market expectations that the currency's weakness may persist.
Washington's involvement in supporting the yen may reflect broader economic and policy considerations. These could include avoiding a scenario in which Japan sells US Treasury holdings to support the currency, as well as concerns that a weaker yen could give Japanese exporters a greater competitive advantage. These possible considerations suggest that the intervention alone does not fully address the underlying forces behind the yen's weakness. This may help explain why the market has so far been reluctant to view the move as a turning point for the currency.
Washington's decision to join the intervention may have reflected concerns, as some observers suggest, that the yen's prolonged weakness had begun to affect US interests. If markets remain unconvinced by the US-Japan intervention, one possible outcome is that Washington could push Japan to take more costly measures to support the yen. Such a scenario could instead create some strain between Washington and Tokyo.
Beyond short-term market dynamics, the yen's weakness also reflects deeper challenges facing the Japanese economy, making a sustained reversal difficult. The currency's prolonged weakness has been influenced by the interest rate gap between Japan and the US, while also reflecting longer-term concerns over the diminishing returns of Japan's traditional growth model.
This leaves Japan facing a delicate policy balance between supporting growth and stabilizing the currency. While lower interest rates could help boost economic activity, continued weakness in the yen may strengthen calls for Japan's central bank to consider further rate increases to narrow the interest rate gap with the US.
Japan's structural challenges mean that a sustained appreciation of the yen will not be easy to achieve. The question of whether to pursue stronger measures, even at the cost of some economic growth, has become more complicated as the US takes a role in the issue. Japan may face greater pressure to support the currency, even though doing so would be difficult and could carry broader economic costs.
The author is a reporter with the Global Times. [email protected]

。　　据新华社消息，据伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台25日晚报道，伊朗外交部副部长加里巴巴迪表示，根据伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡航线新达成的谅解，进入波斯湾的航线将途经伊朗水域，离开波斯湾的航线将途经阿曼和伊朗水域，任何军舰不得通过该海峡，只允许商船通行。上午还有消息称，美国与伊朗已就停火协议条款达成共识，其内容包括霍尔木兹海峡的自由航行。　　伊朗90%的股票上涨　　伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社（IRNA）称，今天开盘后，德黑兰证券交易所综合指数上涨155000点，突破6385000点；一度超90%的股票上涨，超过80%的股票上涨2%—3%。这已经是伊朗股市连续第二天爆发。昨天开盘不到一个小时，德黑兰证券交易所综合指数上涨逾10万点，突破历史性的620万点。　　伊朗股票的表现显然与美伊冲突局势缓和有关。巴基斯坦军方和伊朗安全部门消息人士对俄罗斯卫星通讯社透露，美国与伊朗已就停火协议条款达成共识，其内容包括霍尔木兹海峡的自由航行。消息人士说：“就停火协议达成共识，其中包括霍尔木兹海峡的自由航行条款。”消息人士指出，双方预计将在未来几天内公布相关消息。

B | 据消息人士介绍，根据谅解备忘录，将启动谈判和一轮技术性会议。

C | 　　新华社援引伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台25日晚报道，伊朗外交部副部长加里巴巴迪表示，根据伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡航线新达成的谅解，进入波斯湾的航线将途经伊朗水域，离开波斯湾的航线将途经阿曼和伊朗水域，任何军舰不得通过该海峡，只允许商船通行。　　加里巴巴迪表示，伊朗与阿曼之间的谅解并不意味着立即开放霍尔木兹海峡，上述通行安排为临时措施，两国后续将在30至60天内就划设一条新的永久航线展开谈判。　　加里巴巴迪强调，如果伊朗的要求和条件得不到满足，霍尔木兹海峡将继续关闭。他表示，重开海峡的前提条件包括彻底结束黎巴嫩战线在内的所有战事、解除封锁、妥善解决也门问题，此外，美国必须全面履行其此前未能履行的所有承诺。加里巴巴迪说，美国声称已清除霍尔木兹海峡水雷的说法是“宣传谎言”，伊朗将打击进入该区域的美国扫雷舰。　　变数依然存在　　伊朗《Al-Vefaq》报编辑穆赫塔尔·哈达德表示，美国媒体报道称，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示华盛顿不会对伊朗发动新一轮打击，这表明美国有意维持目前的僵局，直至美国中期选举结束。

D | 哈达德警告说，伊朗不会被动地等待美国的时机。他认为，美国近期宣布的封锁和制裁措施并无实质新意，并表示，如果伊朗认为美国未能履行条件或不履行谅解备忘录，德黑兰将采取必要措施；他还补充说，伊朗正在调整的军事战略也体现了这一立场。　　从霍尔木兹海峡的通航情况来看，周三公布的初步航运数据显示，周二有五艘散货船通过霍尔木兹海峡，与周一持平，但远低于过去十天的平均水平15艘。

E | Kpler的初步追踪数据显示，两艘液化石油气船和一艘沥青船离开海峡，另有两艘空载成品油轮从阿曼湾进入。

F | 周一有四艘散货船通过。由于部分船舶关闭了AIS应答器，数据可能会有所修正。周二通过曼德海峡的船舶数量基本持平，为31艘，与前一天的29艘基本一致，与过去十天的平均水平大致相符。　　另外，本周有四位消息人士透露，出于安全考虑，至少三家印度炼油企业和一家全球能源巨头计划停止使用伊朗新列入黑名单的船舶，其中包括用于船对船转运的船舶。　　伊朗上周日公布了一份包含45艘船舶的名单，称这些船舶违反了其霍尔木兹海峡通行规则，并警告称将对任何与这些船舶进行货物转运的船舶采取行动。此举似乎旨在“干扰”阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯等海湾产油国的所谓“穿梭运输”。（文章来源：券商中国）。