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Why Isn’t Biden Dragging Down Democrats? Thank Abortion Politics and Donald Trump_我的网站
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President Joe Biden's approval ratings are low. Even his own party's rank-and-file think he's too old for the job and would rather someone else were their nominee for president.
But Biden is not a drag for down-ticket Democrats, who have been overperforming in special elections this year and who have been winning ballot initiative battles. Biden isn't even a drag on himself, as a critical percentage of voters in battleground states say they will vote for him even if they don't approve of him or his job performance.
"It's kind of been a long time coming. Democrats have steadily improved" in their voter share in a wide array of races, says Arizona-based pollster Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights. Since the election of former President Donald Trump in 2016 and the judicial upending of guaranteed abortion rights in 2022, Democrats have improved their support among college-educated voters, and "those voters are more apt to vote in elections that have an abysmal turnout," such as special elections, Noble says.
An analysis of 2023 special elections results by the elections website FiveThirtyEight found that Democrats overperformed by an average of 10 percentage points. That means that even when Democrats lost special elections, they did better than the political landscape would indicate, given the partisan breakdown in the district and the electoral history there.
A look at special elections in battleground states underscores that August analysis.
In Pennsylvania, a Democrat won a special election for a state House seat by a 3-1 margin, compared with the party's 2-1 win in the 2022 general election. A state Senate seat in a heavily Republican district stayed in GOP hands in a special election earlier this year, but the victor won by a smaller percentage than the Republican candidate did in November 2022.
In Wisconsin, the GOP won a July special election for a state assembly seat, 54% to 46%. That's a smaller margin than in 2022, when the Republican won the seat with 61% of the vote, compared to 39% for the Democratic candidate.
A special election for a Wisconsin state Senate seat was barely won by the GOP candidate, 50.8% to 49.1%. During the previous election, in 2020, the Republican won far more comfortably, with 54% of the vote, compared to 46% for the Democratic candidate.
In a regularly scheduled election, Democrats scored an upset win for a seat in the state Supreme Court, providing a critical liberal majority on a panel that may decide abortion rights, redistricting and other issues. Democratic Judge Janet Protasiewicz won by more than 11 percentage points in a state where whisper-thin margins are more common.
In New Hampshire, a Democrat won a run-off for a state House seat by more than 11 percentage points, after winning the exact same number of votes as the GOP rival in the 2022 general election.
In Virginia, Democrats flipped a state Senate seat in a January special election. Republicans retained a House of Delegates seat in a special election that month but by a substantially smaller margin than the GOP won the seat in 2021.
Republicans made few inroads in 2023 special elections – the most notable being in Maine, where the party flipped a state House seat in a June special election. Democrats still hold an 81-seat majority in the chamber.
Republicans as well as nonpartisan analysts caution that special elections are not necessarily predictive of regularly scheduled general elections, since special elections tend to bring out only the most motivated voters.
In New Hampshire, for example, the Democratic Party is more organized, better funded and professional in nature, while the GOP relies more on volunteer and grassroots workers, says Scott Spradling, a nonpartisan political analyst in the Granite State. That gives Democrats an advantage in special elections, where a big part of the battle is getting people to show up and vote, he says.
But the trend favoring Democrats is notable because the party's highest ranking member, Biden, is faring poorly in polling on his job performance and overall approval.
"The old-school concern is about the approval rating being underwater," meaning the official has a higher disapproval than approval rating, says Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania. But because voters aren't too happy with politicians in either party – and are far more entrenched in their partisan leanings than in the past – "you can still win and not be above water" in approval ratings, Yost says.
Two things are boosting Democrats, analysts say: abortion politics and Trump himself, who is not only turning off some independent voters but causing schisms in his own party.
Intraparty fights in battleground states (literally, in Michigan, where physical confrontations have occurred between pro-Trump and Trump-skeptical Republican officials) are dividing the party. In Arizona, the internal battle could weaken the GOP nominee next year for a critical Senate seat.
In Georgia, the GOP has two wings: the one dominated by the likes of firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and the one led by politicians like Gov. Brian Kemp, who Thursday quashed the idea of holding a special session to oust Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to stop her prosecution of Trump.
If Trump is indeed the GOP nominee in 2024, "a lot of people will stay home," says University of Georgia political science professor Scott Ainsworth, giving Biden a chance to win a red state where he prevailed by a very narrow margin in 2020.
Meanwhile, Trump has been motivating not just his devoted base but Democratic voters who might not be crazy about their own likely nominee and don't want another Trump term, Ainsworth says.
"We maybe have entered an era where people don't feel excited about particular presidential nominees. Sometimes, it's the other person's negatives. Biden doesn't always inspire some voters, but by the same token, he doesn't have the heavy baggage that Trump has," Ainsworth says.
Biden is outperforming himself in a number of battleground states – doing better in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against Trump than he is in his own approval ratings.
In Pennsylvania, a Franklin & Marshall poll found, just 3 in 10 voters think Biden is doing an "excellent" or "good" job. But the president would defeat his predecessor Trump 41% to 40%, the survey found.
In Arizona, a plurality of 49% of voters disapprove of Biden, compared to 40% who approve of him, according to an Emerson College poll. But Biden trails Trump by just 1-3 percentage points, depending on whether third-party candidates are included, the poll found.
In Michigan, half of voters disapprove of Biden's job performance, with 43% approving of it, Emerson College found. But in a head-to-head matchup, Biden and Trump are tied, with 44% support each.
In Georgia, a Public Opinion Strategies poll found, 54% of Peach Staters disapprove of Biden and 43% approve of the president. But Biden would beat Trump, 44% to 43%, the survey found. The same polling firm got similar results in Nevada, where 52% of voters disapprove of Biden and 40% approve of him – but prefer Biden as the next president, with 46% supporting the incumbent president for reelection and 43% wanting Trump back, the poll found.
In Wisconsin, the disconnect between approval and support for reelection is especially stark. A Marquette University poll found that while 53% of voters disapprove of Biden's job performance (45% approve of it), they still favor Biden (52%) over Trump (43%) for president in the 2024 election.
A big part of Trump's problem in Wisconsin is Republicans, says Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette poll, noting that Biden has more support in his own party than Trump does among GOPers.
"We think of Trump as having an iron grip on the GOP, but actually he faces a minority of around 30% of Republicans that don't care for him, compared to some 14% of Dems who don't like Biden," Franklin says.
That is playing out in other critical states, Yost says.
"Ultimately, when it comes down to voting for someone, it's not just the person, but the acceptability of his or her opponent," Yost says.
For Democrats, Trump may be their best asset.
。 随着各家球星转会完成，休赛期市场也逐渐降温；而随着联盟各队阵容确定，媒体又开始为未来操心了。
近日，美媒BF对外公布了一份名单，分别是27年夏天可能进入自由市场的超级球星名单，其中不乏约基奇、库里、伦纳德、詹姆斯、字母哥、杜兰特、唐斯、浓眉、巴特勒、欧文等一批明星球员。
对于这份名单，仅从阵容来看，绝对足够夸张；毕竟这一批球员，基本直接代表了过去十几年NBA的最高竞争力。
只是对比来看，相比较于大多数下家稳定的球员，真正让外界讨论最多的，来自于掘金核心主将：尼古拉·约基奇。
从目前的情况来看，掘金的局面已经相当微妙了，一个很关键的问题摆上台面：
这位带队夺冠的MVP约基奇，会不会离开掘金呢？
先从结论来看，目前还没有任何消息证明约基奇决定离开掘金，但问题在于他的一系列操作，确实很容易让外界产生遐想。
按照联盟规则，约基奇在2027-28赛季拥有球员选项，届时他完全选择跳出合同重新决定未来；而回看过去两个休赛期，掘金主动向他递上超级合同，但约基奇全都选择了等待。
时间回到25年夏天，掘金一度开出一份三年2.12亿的提前续约合同；对于普通球员这绝对是无法拒绝的天价，但约基奇选择了拒绝。
B | 而后来到今年夏天，掘金再次提高报价，摆出了两个方案： 一份是三年2.14亿美元，另一份是四年2.78亿美元。
C | 这两笔更高价合约依旧没有能打动约基奇，这就不得不让人思考了，如果钱不是问题，那约基奇到底在犹豫什么呢？ 理性来看，背后的原因其实并不复杂。 对于约基奇而言，现在提前续约，直接意味着少拿一大笔钱；而根据ESPN薪资专家Bobby Marks分析，如果约基奇选择跳出合同，他最高可以和掘金签下五年3.595亿级别的超级顶薪。 对比来看，五年3.595亿，年薪甚至超过7000万。 如果这笔合约达成，又将直接刷新NBA历史最高合同纪录，甚至直接让约基奇生涯总薪资突破7亿大关。 对于任何超级球星而言，一次足以改变历史排名的机会，约基奇自然不会轻易放弃。此前他也公开表示，自己打NBA的目标之一就是赚钱。 那么问题就来了： 如果约基奇一心想拿超级顶薪，那么掘金会不会对续约有所犹豫呢？ 根据名记Mark Stein报道，由于约基奇连续两个休赛期拒绝提前续约，目前联盟多队都在关注掘金内部情况。
D | 摊开目前球队现状看，随着队中核心薪资不断上涨，球队未来大概率陷入奢侈税困境；甚至有美媒直接发文预测，新赛季掘金问鼎西部冠军的概率，仅有7%。 当然，这个预测并不代表最终结果，毕竟约基奇一直具备改变球队的能力；但对于球队高层而言，他们必须考虑一个现实问题： 为了留下约基奇，掘金还愿意付出多少钱呢？ 有意思的是，今日美媒预测网站给出了约基奇的未来下家预测概率榜单，而约基奇留队掘金的概率正在下降，反而是金州勇士，以5%升到了第二的位置。 焦点回到约基奇身上，现在摆在他面前的就是一道关键选择题了： 如果他选择暂缓续约，最终和掘金完成一份超级续约，他很可能拿下NBA历史的最大合同；但如果掘金因为财政压力而选择放弃，那么约基奇在其他球队最高只能拿到四年2.46亿美元。 对比来看，两个选择前后差距甚至超过1亿美元。 所以，最后把选择留给球迷讨论： 对于现在的约基奇，你觉得他该怎么选呢？。
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